Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007594 0.008564 0.009626 0.010878 0.012315 0.013918 0.015847
2024-10-13 0.006311 0.007685 0.009325 0.011438 0.014105 0.017380 0.021742
2024-10-20 0.005233 0.006689 0.008526 0.011033 0.014399 0.018812 0.025112
2024-10-27 0.004519 0.006004 0.007961 0.010761 0.014718 0.020192 0.028479
2024-11-03 0.004077 0.005602 0.007689 0.010801 0.015404 0.022085 0.032756
2024-11-10 0.003845 0.005449 0.007723 0.011249 0.016688 0.024958 0.038863
2024-11-17 0.003484 0.005066 0.007378 0.011079 0.017001 0.026368 0.042838
2024-11-24 0.003232 0.004814 0.007192 0.011119 0.017624 0.028313 0.047941
2024-12-01 0.002953 0.004494 0.006866 0.010891 0.017768 0.029461 0.051792
2024-12-08 0.002809 0.004366 0.006825 0.011116 0.018685 0.032019 0.058556
2024-12-15 0.002632 0.004170 0.006654 0.011098 0.019168 0.033851 0.064201
2024-12-22 0.002389 0.003846 0.006243 0.010623 0.018771 0.034008 0.066536
2024-12-29 0.002232 0.003660 0.006058 0.010547 0.019136 0.035716 0.072477
2025-01-05 0.002190 0.003666 0.006206 0.011095 0.020758 0.040117 0.085000
2025-01-12 0.002008 0.003411 0.005871 0.010703 0.020484 0.040630 0.088924
2025-01-19 0.001863 0.003212 0.005618 0.010441 0.020440 0.041609 0.094097
2025-01-26 0.001772 0.003104 0.005524 0.010480 0.021019 0.044008 0.103127
2025-02-02 0.001740 0.003100 0.005622 0.010912 0.022486 0.048586 0.118536
2025-02-09 0.001637 0.002955 0.005439 0.010747 0.022623 0.050117 0.126265
2025-02-16 0.001565 0.002866 0.005357 0.010786 0.023220 0.052820 0.137730
2025-02-23 0.001472 0.002727 0.005164 0.010566 0.023189 0.053972 0.145013
2025-03-02 0.001431 0.002688 0.005171 0.010784 0.024219 0.057940 0.161419
2025-03-09 0.001369 0.002603 0.005077 0.010766 0.024676 0.060494 0.174080